Climate Cooling Could Start Anytime
By Alan Detwiler

It seems there is a consensus that the earth is warming and the cause is rising concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. There are some serious flaws in the reasoning that leads to that conclusion.

If CO2 causes warming, as CO2 levels rise, temperatures would rise. Data from ice cores obtained from ancient ice in Antarctica and Greenland show a different scenario. Air temperatures rose first, CO2 rose many years later. Likewise, when climate went from hot to cold, temperatures fell first, then years later CO2 levels decreased [1].

Since CO2 levels rise many years after temperatures rise, it suggests that temperature increases cause increases of CO2. And since CO2 levels fell many years after temperatures fell, it seems it must mean that high CO2 levels are not the main cause of climate warming.

There are other reasons to doubt the theory that manmade CO2 is causing the current rise in global average temperature. Earth's temperature has been higher many times in the past before manmade CO2 was put into the atmosphere. As temperatures have risen over the last few decades, other planets in the solar system have shown increases in temperature. Mars, Jupiter, Neptune, and Pluto have had temperature increases [2]. That suggests that the cause of earth's warming is extra terrestrial. Perhaps, a change in energy output of the sun or a change in conditions in or around the solar system.

There is the theory that climate changes could be caused by variations in the earth's orbit and axis of rotation. Those variations effect the amount of energy that the earth receives from the sun. However, the change in energy received seems too small to bring about climate change.

Then there's the theory that changes in the sun's output of energy is the cause of earth's climate change. But the changes measured have shown insufficient variation to cause the observed temperature changes to earth's climate.

There are a number of factors that tend to influence researchers and media commentators to support a consensus that global warming is taking place and anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide is a significant contributor. We do not understand the basic causes of climatic temperature trends. No one has a better theory. Espousing the best of all the bad theories draws the least criticism as does endorsing the most popular theory. The anthropogentic warming by CO2 theory would be another reason to stop burning polluting fossil fuels. Oil and coal will run out some day. The sooner we switch to renewable energy sources, the less disruptive the transition will be. Anthropogenic global warming is another reason to coax society to make the switch. Altogether the reasons to believe the present consensus are compelling. But it seems likely that the consensus is based on false assumptions and so should be considered unreliable at best.

Global temperature has gone up and down many times throughout the ages. There seems to be no convincing theories to indicate whether we are headed for further warming or whether a cooling trend will begin now or soon.

It seems, the best strategy is to do whatever we can to be prepared for either case and to increase our flexibility to adapt to whatever changes occur. Our country and the world should have robust electricity and fuel production capacity to meet additional needs that climate change might bring. That includes renewable energy sources as well as nuclear. The problems of nuclear are solvable through safer design and recycling nuclear waste. The worse course of action is to wait until shortages develop and then suffer until new energy sources can be brought into service.

Contributed by Alan Detwiler, self sufficiency advocate and author. Bio at